In a highly fragile region like the South Caucasus, no construction or infrastructure connectivity project is considered purely economic. The Zangezur Corridor, which aims to create a territorial link between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan through Armenian land, is a clear example of this geopolitical reality. On the surface, the corridor is a plan to facilitate trade and transit, but beneath it lies a broader strategy being implemented with direct support from the United States and Turkey – a strategy to weaken Iran’s regional position and redraw the map of influence in the Islamic Republic’s neighborhood.
Strategically, the Zangezur project is regarded as one of America’s new tools to strengthen its foothold in the South Caucasus after the Second Karabakh War. The ultimate goal of this project is to eliminate Iran and Russia from the main routes transporting Central Asian energy to Europe and to open a new path extending from territories under Baku’s control, through Nakhchivan and Turkey, to Europe. This route not only bolsters gas pipelines such as TAP and TANAP but also aligns with the West’s long-term policy of reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian energy. In this context, Iran, which has traditionally been a safe and reliable transit corridor between East and West, is effectively being sidelined – a marginalization with broad security and economic implications for Tehran.
From a geopolitical perspective, strengthening the Zangezur Corridor essentially eclipses Iran’s strategic role in regional equations. In the past, Iran sought to bolster its position in Eurasian transit through initiatives like the North-South Corridor, but it is now confronted with a project that could effectively eliminate its influence in the South Caucasus. Meanwhile, the Western axis consisting of the United States, Turkey, Israel, and Baku is expanding its operational domain – an axis pursuing not only economic goals but also extensive intelligence and security objectives.
Opposite this new bloc stands the traditional Eurasian axis of Iran, Russia, and China. China, through its Belt and Road Initiative, seeks to redefine global trade routes from East Asia to Europe; Russia, despite the pressures of the Ukraine war, continues to consider itself an influential player in the Caucasus. Iran, in this equation, serves as the connecting point between these two Eastern powers and as a guarantor of regional balance. However, Zangezur poses a threat to this balance. If the corridor is implemented without considering Iran’s concerns, it will effectively sever Iran’s geographic line of influence in the northern Caucasus – a development that would strip Iran of its strategic neighborhood with Armenia and pave the way for non-regional actors to access its northwestern borders.
The recent statements by Azerbaijan’s President and his emphasis on completing the Zangezur Corridor by next spring indicate Baku’s serious determination to implement this plan – a plan that is clearly progressing without coordination with Tehran and contrary to Iran’s geopolitical interests. Ilham Aliyev explicitly speaks of this corridor’s connecting role along the Iran-Armenia border – rhetoric that implicitly threatens Iran’s historic role in the region.
On the other hand, although the Iranian Foreign Ministry’s recent statements contain diplomatic warnings and emphasize respect for countries’ territorial integrity, it is necessary for Iran to elevate its approach from general remarks to operational strategies. Regional developments have shown that mere diplomatic statements without on-the-ground backing are insufficient. Iran needs to strengthen its political cooperation with Armenia and Russia while also developing transport infrastructure along alternative routes such as the Norduz–Yerevan–Tbilisi road and ensuring direct access to the Black Sea. Moreover, more active participation in regional multilateral projects and leveraging the capacities of organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union can serve as effective tools to counter this scenario.
In reality, the Zangezur Corridor represents the intersection of multilayered rivalries among global and regional power blocs. In this geopolitical battle, if Iran fails to act in a timely and decisive manner, it will not only be excluded from trade routes but also face increased security vulnerability along its northern borders due to geopolitical marginalization.
This project is a serious test for Iran’s foreign policy during this period of regional reconfiguration – a test that cannot be resolved through diplomacy alone but requires strategic planning, ground presence, and multilayered alliances.
NOURNEWS