The reality, however, is that this process not only fails to weaken Iran’s negotiating power but also creates significant opportunities for Tehran to manage the scene, build coalitions, and redefine the rules of the game.

The new U.S. and European initiative at the Board reflects the continuation of the same pattern of “low-cost pressure and symbolic deterrence.” At a time when Washington itself is entangled in sensitive debates over nuclear tests and strengthening its deterrence, the attempt to pass a resolution against Iran signals a form of shirking responsibility and diverting public attention.

Nonetheless, according to available reports, even if the resolution is adopted, Iran’s file will not be referred to the UN Security Council, and no new “non-compliance” will be recorded. This means that the West’s primary leverage is effectively neutralized.

This situation demonstrates that, in the face of Iran’s growing regional power, the West lacks both the capacity to move toward hard confrontation and the consensus-building ability necessary to escalate legal and security pressures.

Tehran’s Opportunity to Rebuild the Cooperation Equation with the IAEA

In recent months, Tehran has initiated a new path of smart engagement with the IAEA. While the European draft text raises claims regarding a five-month delay in providing information, these assertions—absent evidence and without reference to formal cooperation channels—are more a political tactic than a technical concern.

Iran can, by highlighting recent cooperative measures such as technical visits, joint dialogues, and clear statements regarding peaceful activities, create conditions to neutralize political pressure.

Experience shows that whenever Tehran has combined “technical transparency” with “political resolve,” immediate Western consensus has collapsed.

Balanced Iranian Response: From Nuclear Consolidation to Threat Management

Tehran is now in a position where every Western political threat can become an opportunity to reinforce nuclear independence. If the European draft—which demands the suspension of all enrichment and reprocessing activities—is adopted, Iran can activate several strategic axes:

Increasing direct engagement with non-Western countries at the IAEA.

Leveraging support from China and Russia to block any security-path initiatives targeting Iran.

Sending a clear message to the Board that symbolic pressures threaten technical cooperation and impose new costs on the West.

Expanding peaceful nuclear activities within the framework of international law and the NPT without creating tensions.

This “resistant engagement” approach allows Tehran to maintain legal legitimacy while enhancing its political deterrence.

Shifting Balance of Power: Iran as a Determining Actor, Not a Passive Side

The reality on the ground today shows that Iran’s initiative in regional affairs, energy, maritime security, and East-oriented cooperation has significantly reduced the weight of the Board’s decisions.

Europe is grappling with an energy crisis and declining power, and the United States is unwilling to enter a new nuclear crisis. Accordingly, Tehran can, relying on three key elements—domestic stability, a network of regional allies, and nuclear technical capacity—reshape the decision-making environment to its advantage.

This moment represents the optimal opportunity for Iran to turn an “administrative threat at the IAEA” into a strategic chance to solidify its role in the emerging global order.